2026 Macroeconomic Outlook: A Financial and Professional Services Perspective2026年宏观经济展望：金融与专业服务视角2026年宏觀經濟展望：金融與專業服務視角

Developed through a strategic collaboration between EnterpriseNGR and EY, this report argues that Nigeria's economy is at a pivotal moment, moving from past volatilities into a new phase of stability, reform-led growth, and renewed investor confidence, under the theme "Reform-Led Stability: Boosting Confidence, Unlocking Sustainable Growth." Bold policy measures over the past two years — including the unification of foreign exchange markets and the removal of distortions in monetary management — have begun to yield tangible results: foreign exchange market turnover rose over 56% year-on-year, and external reserves reached $45.5 billion by Q4 2025, the highest in nearly seven years, providing more than 10 months of import cover.本报告由EnterpriseNGR与安永（EY）战略合作编制，认为尼日利亚经济正处于关键转折点，正从过去的动荡步入以改革为主导的稳定增长与投资者信心回升的新阶段，报告主题为"改革引领稳定：提振信心，释放可持续增长动力"。过去两年间，包括统一外汇市场及消除货币管理扭曲在内的大胆政策举措已初见成效：外汇市场成交量同比增长超过56%，外汇储备于2025年第四季度达到455亿美元，为近七年最高水平，可满足超过10个月的进口需求。本報告由EnterpriseNGR與安永（EY）戰略合作編製，認為奈及利亞經濟正處於關鍵轉折點，正從過去的動盪步入以改革為主導的穩定增長與投資者信心回升的新階段，報告主題為「改革引領穩定：提振信心，釋放可持續增長動力」。過去兩年間，包括統一外匯市場及消除貨幣管理扭曲在內的大膽政策舉措已初見成效：外匯市場成交量同比增長超過56%，外匯儲備於2025年第四季度達到455億美元，為近七年最高水平，可滿足超過10個月的進口需求。

The report finds Nigeria's real GDP grew 3.98% in Q3 2025 to ₦57.03 trillion, with non-oil sectors — now accounting for over 96% of GDP — the key contributors, supported by rising telecoms activity, financial intermediation and commercial services, while inflation eased to 15.15%. The Nigerian Stock Exchange surpassed ₦100 trillion in market capitalisation, with further gains expected from major listings including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd.) and Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals, and political stability alongside a youthful population and growing digital economy provide a strong base for long-term growth.报告指出，尼日利亚实际GDP在2025年第三季度增长3.98%，达到57.03万亿奈拉，非石油部门（目前占GDP比重超过96%）为主要增长动力，受电信业务、金融中介及商业服务活动增长的支撑；同期通胀率降至15.15%。尼日利亚证券交易所市值突破100万亿奈拉，随着尼日利亚国家石油公司（NNPC Ltd.）及丹格特石油炼化公司等重要企业上市，市值预计将进一步攀升；政治稳定，加上年轻化人口结构与不断增长的数字经济，为长期增长奠定了坚实基础。報告指出，奈及利亞實際GDP在2025年第三季度增長3.98%，達到57.03萬億奈拉，非石油部門（目前佔GDP比重超過96%）為主要增長動力，受電信業務、金融中介及商業服務活動增長的支撐；同期通脹率降至15.15%。奈及利亞證券交易所市值突破100萬億奈拉，隨著奈及利亞國家石油公司（NNPC Ltd.）及丹格特石油煉化公司等重要企業上市，市值預計將進一步攀升；政治穩定，加上年輕化人口結構與不斷增長的數字經濟，為長期增長奠定了堅實基礎。

The report links these improving macroeconomic fundamentals directly to the resilience of Nigeria's Financial and Professional Services (FPS) sector: strong GDP growth and improved foreign exchange liquidity are supporting sector activity, lower inflation and expected monetary easing are set to reduce funding costs and stimulate credit demand, and rising foreign capital inflows, higher reserves and improved ratings are strengthening market confidence — enabling FPS firms to scale services while deepening financial inclusion through banking recapitalisation, pension reforms, fintech innovation and digital payments. The report concludes that Nigeria's reforms, real-sector momentum and policy consistency support a strong investment case, positioning the country as a high-potential emerging market for 2026.报告将这些不断改善的宏观经济基本面，与尼日利亚金融与专业服务（FPS）行业的韧性直接挂钩：强劲的GDP增长与外汇流动性的改善正在支撑该行业的业务活动，通胀下行及预期中的货币宽松政策有望降低融资成本、刺激信贷需求，而外资流入增加、储备提升及评级改善正在增强市场信心——推动金融与专业服务企业通过银行业资本重组、养老金改革、金融科技创新及数字支付等手段扩大服务规模，深化普惠金融。报告最后总结认为，尼日利亚的改革成效、实体经济增长动能及政策一致性，共同支撑起有力的投资论据，使该国成为2026年具备高增长潜力的新兴市场。報告將這些不斷改善的宏觀經濟基本面，與奈及利亞金融與專業服務（FPS）行業的韌性直接掛鈎：強勁的GDP增長與外匯流動性的改善正在支撐該行業的業務活動，通脹下行及預期中的貨幣寬鬆政策有望降低融資成本、刺激信貸需求，而外資流入增加、儲備提升及評級改善正在增強市場信心——推動金融與專業服務企業通過銀行業資本重組、養老金改革、金融科技創新及數字支付等手段擴大服務規模，深化普惠金融。報告最後總結認為，奈及利亞的改革成效、實體經濟增長動能及政策一致性，共同支撐起有力的投資論據，使該國成為2026年具備高增長潛力的新興市場。