Mind the Protection Gap警惕保障缺口警惕保障缺口

Climate change is no longer just a physical risk issue; it is increasingly a financial stability issue, the report argues. As climate hazards intensify and become less predictable, insured losses will continue to rise, tightening insurance markets and widening the "protection gap" — the growing share of economic activity and value left uninsured or underinsured. The paper's central argument is that insurability is the critical transmission channel connecting climate risk to the wider economy: when insurance becomes more expensive, narrower, or unavailable, the effects spread into lending, investment, asset valuations, and public finances, reducing bankability and investability across the real economy.报告认为，气候变化已不再仅仅是一个物理风险问题，而正日益演变为金融稳定问题。随着气候灾害加剧且愈发难以预测，已投保损失将持续攀升，保险市场随之收紧，「保障缺口」——即未投保或投保不足的经济活动与价值所占比例——也随之扩大。本文的核心论点是：可保性是连接气候风险与更广泛经济的关键传导渠道——当保险变得更昂贵、覆盖范围收窄，甚至无法获得时，其影响将波及信贷、投资、资产估值与公共财政，进而削弱实体经济的可融资性与可投资性。報告認為，氣候變化已不再僅僅是一個物理風險問題，而正日益演變為金融穩定問題。隨著氣候災害加劇且愈發難以預測，已投保損失將持續攀升，保險市場隨之收緊，「保障缺口」——即未投保或投保不足的經濟活動與價值所佔比例——也隨之擴大。本文的核心論點是：可保性是連接氣候風險與更廣泛經濟的關鍵傳導渠道——當保險變得更昂貴、覆蓋範圍收窄，甚至無法獲得時，其影響將波及信貸、投資、資產估值與公共財政，進而削弱實體經濟的可融資性與可投資性。

The UK is not immune: the UK Climate Change Committee estimates around £11 billion of annual investment is required to support national adaptation and resilience, yet financing remains constrained by valuation bias, short-term horizons, fragmented project pipelines, and the public-good nature of many resilience measures. Without faster progress, the report warns, underinvestment in resilience risks reinforcing a negative loop in which rising losses weaken insurability, further discouraging private investment and placing greater pressure on the public sector.英国也未能幸免：英国气候变化委员会估计，支持国家适应与韧性建设每年需要约110亿英镑的投资，然而，估值偏差、短期视野、项目储备碎片化，以及许多韧性建设措施所具有的公共产品属性，仍在制约相关融资。报告警告，若不能加快推进，韧性建设投资不足可能加剧一种负向循环：损失上升削弱可保性，进而进一步抑制私人投资，并对公共部门造成更大压力。英國也未能倖免：英國氣候變化委員會估計，支持國家適應與韌性建設每年需要約110億英鎊的投資，然而，估值偏差、短期視野、項目儲備碎片化，以及許多韌性建設措施所具有的公共產品屬性，仍在制約相關融資。報告警告，若不能加快推進，韌性建設投資不足可能加劇一種負向循環：損失上升削弱可保性，進而進一步抑制私人投資，並對公共部門造成更大壓力。

As a leading global centre for insurance and capital markets, the report frames the UK's exposure to both domestic and global climate risk as also an opportunity — one requiring significant capital mobilisation that UK financial markets are well placed to help lead. It sets out a practical agenda for action: earlier pricing and governance of physical risks, improved recognition of resilience measures in insurance and financing terms, a growing pipeline of investable adaptation projects, greater use of blended capital, and targeted public backstops where markets alone cannot deliver. Its central message is that adaptation and resilience should be treated as core economic infrastructure, not discretionary costs.作为全球领先的保险与资本市场中心，报告认为，英国在国内及全球气候风险中所承受的敞口，同时也是一个机遇——需要调动大量资本，而英国金融市场正处于引领这一进程的有利位置。报告提出了一套切实可行的行动议程：更早对物理风险进行定价与治理；在保险与融资条款中更充分地体现韧性建设措施；扩大可投资的适应性项目储备；更多运用混合融资；并在市场机制本身无法奏效之处，提供有针对性的公共支持机制。报告的核心信息是：适应与韧性建设应被视为核心经济基础设施，而非可自由裁量的开支。作為全球領先的保險與資本市場中心，報告認為，英國在國內及全球氣候風險中所承受的敞口，同時也是一個機遇——需要調動大量資本，而英國金融市場正處於引領這一進程的有利位置。報告提出了一套切實可行的行動議程：更早對物理風險進行定價與治理；在保險與融資條款中更充分地體現韌性建設措施；擴大可投資的適應性項目儲備；更多運用混合融資；並在市場機制本身無法奏效之處，提供有針對性的公共支持機制。報告的核心信息是：適應與韌性建設應被視為核心經濟基礎設施，而非可自由裁量的開支。